The oft-quoted idea about Hillary Clinton’s presidential chances are that she would be devastating in the primaries, easily taking the Democratic nomination, but she would lose the general election because she is too divisive. The argument is that, if Hillary can just reach out to voters who don’t like her and convince them, then she could win. Just think! A woman for president! And Hillary can do it.

It’s a load of hooey. There’s no way that Hillary will even win the nomination, let alone the general election. I’m not justifying this based on polls (which are pretty inconclusive this early), or on her likeability, or even on her ability to reach across aisles. I’m basing it solely on one thing: Bill.

Hillary can’t win any country-wide elections because of her husband. What on earth would she do with him? Let him campaign for her? He’ll steal the spotlight because that’s what he loves best. Should she keep him quiet? Then she’ll look like she’s embarrassed to be married to him (maybe she is, but she can’t say that or seem like it).

The problem is that Bill is not a docile political spouse. He can’t just hold her hand, smile, and talk about how he loves children. What he loves are interns, and he can’t talk about that. Bill will be the 800-lb gorilla in every room – whether he speaks or not.

Of course, no predictions are valid this early. Anything could happen, right? Anything except Hillary as president.